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Subject Author Date
The Micronuke Long Bet Challenge Neon John 12-20-2007
Posted by Neon John on December 20, 2007, 4:31 pm
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 Here is my prediction:

By January 1st, 2028 (20 years from now), at least one "Micro Nuke" or
"Neighborhood
Nuke" power plant will exist on US soil.

"Micro Nuke" is as defined by the American Nuclear Society (ANS) and generally
resembles the product that Toshiba has just announced. It will generally be of
1MW
capacity or less, though the ANS definition will rule. "Exist" means that the
plant
will be operating, under construction or be licensed for construction by the NRC
or
its successors. "Construction License" is an NRC term of art and is used here as
such.

In the event streamlined licensing changes the terminology, "under construction"
shall mean that all regulatory requirements have been met and the facility has
received the official go-ahead for construction and that ground has been broken.

"US soil" means any state, territory, protectorate or other entity recognized by
the
US government as its own.

----------------

Ok, there it is. Any challengers? The minimum bet is $200 so that's what my
bet is.

BTW, I didn't realize that Toshiba had acquired Westinghouse Nuclear. Ahhh, now
them
making a micro-nuke makes sense.

John
--
John De Armond
See my website for my current email address
http://www.neon-john.com
http://www.johndearmond.com <-- best little blog on the net!
Tellico Plains, Occupied TN
Some people are only alive because it is illegal to kill.


Posted by Anthony Matonak on December 21, 2007, 1:07 am
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 Neon John wrote:
> By January 1st, 2028 (20 years from now), at least one "Micro Nuke" or
"Neighborhood
> Nuke" power plant will exist on US soil.
>
> "Micro Nuke" is as defined by the American Nuclear Society (ANS) and generally
> resembles the product that Toshiba has just announced. It will generally be
of 1MW
> capacity or less, though the ANS definition will rule. "Exist" means that the
plant
> will be operating, under construction or be licensed for construction by the
NRC or
> its successors. "Construction License" is an NRC term of art and is used here
as
> such.

I say these definitions are far too lose and that there is likely
at least one military or research reactor in some university that
qualifies today.

Nope, it doesn't "exist" until it's actually operating. It's not a
real commercial product until they sell more than one to ordinary
citizens to own and operate. It's also not a "Neighborhood Power
Plant" unless it produces more than one kilowatt.

I've seen way too many "Licensed for Construction" scams that never
materialize to ever say something "exists" that doesn't.

Anthony

Posted by Neon John on December 21, 2007, 1:57 am
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On Thu, 20 Dec 2007 22:07:44 -0800, Anthony Matonak

>Neon John wrote:
>> By January 1st, 2028 (20 years from now), at least one "Micro Nuke" or
"Neighborhood
>> Nuke" power plant will exist on US soil.
>>
>> "Micro Nuke" is as defined by the American Nuclear Society (ANS) and generally
>> resembles the product that Toshiba has just announced. It will generally be
of 1MW
>> capacity or less, though the ANS definition will rule. "Exist" means that
the plant
>> will be operating, under construction or be licensed for construction by the
NRC or
>> its successors. "Construction License" is an NRC term of art and is used
here as
>> such.
>
>I say these definitions are far too lose and that there is likely
^^^^ "loose"
>at least one military or research reactor in some university that
>qualifies today.

Neither military nor research reactors are commercial, though, are they?

>
>Nope, it doesn't "exist" until it's actually operating. It's not a
>real commercial product until they sell more than one to ordinary
>citizens to own and operate. It's also not a "Neighborhood Power
>Plant" unless it produces more than one kilowatt.

You *do* know what a megawatt is, don't you?

>
>I've seen way too many "Licensed for Construction" scams that never
>materialize to ever say something "exists" that doesn't.

Really? How many can you name?

Whatever. Since the construction period will be short for this type of reactor,
I'll
punt since it'll happen long before the 20 years are up anyway.

Revised bet.

By January 1st, 2028 (20 years from now), at least one "Micro Nuke" or
"Neighborhood
Nuke" power plant will exist on US soil.

"Micro Nuke" is as defined by the American Nuclear Society (ANS) and generally
resembles the product that Toshiba has just announced. It will generally be of
1MW
capacity or less, though the ANS definition will rule. "Exist" means that the
plant
is generating electricity that is supplied to loads external to the plant
itself. The
plant may be owned by any entity, private, governmental or foreign.

"US soil" means any state, territory, protectorate or other entity recognized by
the
US government as its own.

Any dispute as to definition or existence shall be resolved by a recognized
industry
expert appointed by the President of the American Nuclear Society.

---------------------

OK, time to put up or shut up.

John
--
John De Armond
See my website for my current email address
http://www.neon-john.com
http://www.johndearmond.com <-- best little blog on the net!
Tellico Plains, Occupied TN
I love cats ... they taste just like chicken.


Posted by Anthony Matonak on December 21, 2007, 4:15 am
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Neon John wrote:
> Any dispute as to definition or existence shall be resolved by a recognized
industry
> expert appointed by the President of the American Nuclear Society.

My main problems with your definition.

- I could find no definition from the American Nuclear Society.
- You don't specify a lower limit to the size.
- You seem to allow government, military and research reactors.

I can't agree or disagree with the American Nuclear Society
definition unless I first read it and I would automatically
disqualify nuclear watch batteries and other similarly tiny
devices.

If something is not allowed to be sold to the public, does
it matter if it exists or not? No matter how hard I try, I
can't get together with the neighborhood watch and buy a
nuclear bomb. Even if I could buy it, the government wouldn't
allow me to keep or use it.

Anthony

Posted by danny burstein on December 21, 2007, 4:16 am
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>I can't agree or disagree with the American Nuclear Society
>definition unless I first read it and I would automatically
>disqualify nuclear watch batteries and other similarly tiny
>devices.

Don't forget the nuclear powered pacemakers (yes, really)
which were being played with two decades ago. They were
phased out [a] in favor of the then new, and higher
powered/longer life (compared to earlier types)
lithium batteries.

[a] as far as I know there aren't any currently
being placed, but I could be wrong...

--
_____________________________________________________
Knowledge may be power, but communications is the key
                 dannyb@panix.com
[to foil spammers, my address has been double rot-13 encoded]

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