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Posted by PhattyMo on December 23, 2007, 6:29 am
Please log in for more thread options N9WOS wrote:
> Once in a while, the urge to type my ideas down in one big post and post
> them for the world to see, hits me. And this is one of those times.
>
> (....Brain dump commencing...)
>
> While we are talking about predictions...
>
> The earlier post about micro nukes and related stuff got me thinking. What
> would happen if cheep fission power and cheep fusion power (Pray for ITER)
> ever took hold? Or even where cheep solar power brings down electric prices
> to new lows.
>
> As time goes by fossil fuels will get more expensive. Stationary equipment
> that use to run on natural gas, propane, gasoline, or diesel, will slowly be
> changed over to electric power. That, in addition to natural growth of
> electric usage will mean that house electrical services in the next fifty
> years will become enormous!!
>
> Just look at history. When electricity first come along houses had two or so
> circuits. About 15A to 30A total service capacity. Then comes along electric
> ranges and the like. Pretty soon, the 60A fuse box became standard with four
> lighting and plug circuits, and one range circuit. As went buy, it needed to
> run an electric water heater, and more and more lighting , plug, and range
> circuits. It soon grew into a 100A fuse box, and then a 150 amp fuse box.
>
> About then, breaker usage was coming into full stride. The 100A breaker box
> pretty much become a base installation. They had 10 to 20 some spaces, or
> more. But it didn't stop there.
>
> As house electrical usage grew, breaker boxes grew to 150A and then they
> finally grew to 200A There was also several manufactures offering 200A fuse
> boxes at the end of the fuse box rain many years back.
>
> It is now pretty much considered that a 200A breaker box is the minimum
> required for the primary service for a house. And it is the largest size
> that is normally offered at home improvement stores.
>
> But the pattern of expansion hasn't come to a stop. Many new homes are being
> built with 400A service. That consist of two 200A breaker boxes. Two breaker
> boxes are used only because a 400A breaker box isn't readily available right
> now. But that is only a temporary situation. Breaker box manufactures are
> starting to produce 400A service boxes for the residential market. It will
> only be time until they are offered in most electrical supply houses, and
> home improvement stores.
>
> There is even some homes that have went to 600A service.
>
> Do you think the expansion trend will stop with 600A services?
>
> What will happen when those houses stop using propane and natural gas when
> it starts getting more expensive and switch those appliances over to
> electricity when electricity gets cheaper?
>
> What will happen when the owners buy electric cars because of high gasoline
> prices, and they have to have the power on tap to rapidly charge two or
> three vehicles?
>
> How come I get the odd feeling that 1000A services will become standard?
>
> The grid will also expand with time.
>
> If fusion comes to reality, you will see terawatt level generation stations
> dot the landscape. And superconductor transmission lines may be the only way
> to disperse that level of power.
>
> Once it gets to the local level, expect to see local distribution systems
> slowly push up system voltages as loads increase.
>
> Normal system voltages for light urban is normally 2.4KV. For rural
> distribution systems an REMC's it is normally 7.2KV. For heavier areas it
> normally is 14.4 to 28.8KV A lot of heavy city areas spread out the power at
> 60+KV throughout the city to small substations which drop it down to 7.2 or
> 2.4KVfor the lines running through the back yard.
>
> The problem with those voltages is they won't handle the type of residential
> loads that will come about in the future. The utilities will either have to
> go with superconductor distribution lines, or push up the voltages to
> sustain the loads. Most likely, they will push residential distribution
> voltages to 28.8KV or even higher. Local substations feeding that 28.8KV
> grid will probably feed by 100KV+ feeders. Or they may use super conducting
> 28.8KV transmission lines to feed the conventional grid segments. With the
> 28.8KV being derived at a central substation using a new compact
> superconductor transformer that is being directly feed by a transmission
> line coming from a fusion power station.
>
> Micro nukes, and in the future, micro fusion plants, will also allow the
> large sums of power to be generated closer to the point of use. That will
> reduce the need for super conducting transmission systems.
>
> The main big change I think is going to happen is... The standard service
> voltage (to the house) is going to increase. Because when you get into 1000A
> levels at 120V/240V you start getting into huge conductors. Most residential
> wiring is already rated to 600VAC. I think we are going to start using more
> of that 600V headroom The way you get around large current levels at high
> power levels is push up the voltage. Most large factories and buildings have
> already left 480V in the past for the primary service voltage coming from
> the utility, at the meter point. They have either went to 600V, 1.2Kv or
> higher for the on premises distribution system. I expect to see people shift
> away from 120/240V as the primary service voltage to the house. I have seen
> some farms that use 480V single phase or three service to feed single phase
> step down transformers in buildings throughout the property that feed
> conventional 120/240V boxes. That allows them to get around high copper cost
> and achieve a more solid voltage supply. The savings in copper paid for the
> cost of the transformers. If houses shift over to 480V three phase for the
> primary service then the person designing the house can be free to decide if
> he wants 120V/240V single phase 120/208V three phase, 240V wye or delta or
> even the original 480V to drive something depending on what step down
> transformer they use in that part of the house.
>
> Step down transformers have been a cornerstone of the industrial and
> commercial electrical systems for decades. They use them to derive 120V
> lighting power from high power 480V three phase systems running through the
> buildings. I think they will start showing up in residential areas one of
> these days.
>
> Think of the savings you could have. Where you would normally have a 1000A
> 120/240V service, which is 240KW. You could deliver that same power with a
> 289A three phase service. That would yield much savings in equipment and
> copper, and a far easier installation. The heavy loads could run directly
> off of three phase power. Like water heating, space heating, range, air
> conditioning and electric car charging. The lighting and appliance loads
> could run off of a 480V to 120V/240V step down transformer. When you don't
> have anything else running off of it, it wouldn't take much just to run
> lighting electronics and the appliances around the house. A 100A box being
> driven by a 25KVA transformer would do fine. If you needed more plug power
> for a new addition then you could put a new transformer and new 120/240V box
> in the addition. If you have 3phase shop tools, you can run them. If you
> have two phase equipment, you can run it. If you have single phase
> equipment, you can run it. It would give the home owner ultimate opportunity
> for expansion of his electrical system how ever he sees fit.
>
> Instead of driving a 9.6KW load by 4AGW wire with 80A at 120V or 8AWG wire
> with 40A at 240V. You would instead drive it with 12AWG wire at 20A with
> 480V single phase. Or you could even use 14AWG with 12A at 480V three phase.
>
> If $1 a watt solar ever comes reality then you will also have new needs for
> 200KW+ residential services It would be required for back feeding the grid
> with huge solar installations. At those prices, expect to see people
> installing 200KW+ solar farms.
>
> It is all a natural progression.
>
> The 200A and 400A single phase services that are in homes now, was once
> reserved for large commercial and small industrial operations.
>
> The 480V three phase services that are in the 1000A+ range in commercial
> businesses, was once strictly reserved for large industrial installations.
> If you would of told a utility engineer 50 years ago that a single store
> would need a 1MW utility supply. They would of looked at you like you lost
> your mind.
>
> Industrial and large industrial installations now use 2.4KV distribution in
> the plant, and usually buy their power at distribution line, or transmission
> line voltage. They step the 7.4KV to 100KV down to 2.4KV by a company owned
> substation located on site. That type of setup was once strictly reserved
> for utility companies.
>
> So, I fully expect that in the years to come, we will either see the primary
> service box in residential homes to grow to the 1000A level at the present
> voltages. Or it will grow to the 480V three phase level while the current
> stays about the same. One way or the other, the power supply to the home
> will grow with time. It's not a mater of opinion, it is a mater of history.
>
> Some may say, "1000 amps!!!!!! Are you crazy??" All I have to say is people
> 70 years ago would of said the same thing when you would tell them that we
> currently have houses with 200A breaker boxes.
>
> I say a basic service of, 400A at 480V 3P for a house seems to be a
> reasonable level for homes in the year 2050 to 2070.
>
> 400A 480V 3 phase fused disconnects are standard commodity item right now
> for industrial and commercial systems. Expect to see them showing up as the
> main disconnect at a house near you.
>
> (....end brain dump.....)
>
>
>
> Good day...
>
>
I hope solar/wind/hydro/micronuke/whatever takes off a bit.
I'm not sure that the grid can keep up with such high demands without
some serious upgrades,and we're already having problems now in some areas.
Localized generation would go a long way to lowering the load on the
grid,one would think.
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