According to some studies* it already peaked in late 2006. The major
Saudi fields are in decline and using seawater to force out what's left.
In any case, as the price of oil rises, so does the greed. As the greed
rises, so does the use of violence trying to control a source. And as
the violence rises, this damages the infrastructure. Which stops the
expansion of development of whatever remaining reserves there are.
The reduction of Nigerian production being an example. So- for all
practical purposes, we have passed Hubbard's Peak Global Oil Production.
The high oil prices crippled the global economy. This destabilizes, some
regions, like East Africa, are already anarchic, and therefore dont
import nearly the oil they once did. This is the byzantine model,
abandoning unprofitable provinces [failed states] to anarchy and
barbarism while redirecting critical supplies [oil] to the great power
centers. Where life goes on pretty much as always even tho global oil
production is down.
The problem is that investors can see that if the economy gets going
again, the demand for oil will rise again, and with that the rise in
price... which will siphon off any profit. So- they shift to gold; but
this does not create wealth, only stores it. And as people become more
desperate, they'll dump whatever gold they have on the market to buy
food and fuel. You cant eat gold, and cant heat a house with it, and
those who have those resources can wait til the price of gold crashes.