Posted by Ben on November 15, 2004, 7:58 pm
We aren't talking reliability here, my Toyota 2004 Camry LE 5 speed should
prove as reliable as the Prius I will assume. My assertion is that the
battery should be depreciated as its being USED UP, lowering the value of
the used car as it needs replacement and that replacement should be part of
your fuel mileage calculations.
That said and saying the battery lasts 10 years (2 years past its warranty)
and needs to be replaced, for a cost of $000 (now who would put $000 into
a ten year old car? So what is the car worth with a now dead battery?) So
the real cost may include the throwaway of your ten year old car! But say
you replace the battery, that adds $00 per year to your fuel bottom line.
My Camry gets 30 mpg (AC off), given a 15k year and $ gas, that is $000
per year, say the Prius gets 50 mpg (I travel at 75-80 so I don't think it
will give that kind of mileage), then it costs $00 in gas and then add the
$00 per year battery cost and its a wash. Except I paid $7000 out the door
for my Camry, I was offered a $1,850 Prius, at that time for $8,500!
My choice in a high mileage vehicle will be the Honda Accord diesel when it
arrives, with biodiesel it will be an excellent long lived alternative.
Just my spin,
Posted by Bill on November 15, 2004, 8:40 pm
I did the math, Ben, and you are correct. There were two other factors
that, for me, were overriding considerations:
1. I will be consuming less fuel. Sometime during 2005 global consumption
will exceed global production, IMO. From that time forward the price of
gasoline will increase dramatically if the economies of India and China
continue to grow at their present rate. For my part, I will be using less
of a resource that can't be replenished.
2. The Prius has exceptional emission characteristics.
Posted by Ben on November 15, 2004, 9:31 pm
Thanks for your reply, I feel the differences in emissions are not great
enough to justify the $1,000 difference. Also the costs in fuel to create
and destroy these batteries will consume any savings. Also what is a car
that needs a new battery worth?
The price of fuel will go up. Burning hydrocarbons uses up Oxygen. I wrote a
paper in 1986 showing that gas, oil, coal and the oxygen in the atmosphere,
were created from the same exact reaction, photosynthesis. So when you burn
hydrocarbon fuels you are using up our reservoir of oxygen, from 22.1%
before 1965 to under 21% today (probably closer to 20%). We have used about
10% of the available oxygen, meaning we have used 10% of all hydrocarbon
fuels. My webpage describes it a little more fully
http://oxygen.forwhomthe.com . We need to create the oxygen as well as the
fuel. That is why I have I high hopes for biodiesel. It only takes 7 lbs. of
soybeans (you can use corn, hemp any bio-oil) to make a gallon of biodiesel
and of course you also made the oxygen it will burn. Biodiesel has better
lubricity, zero sulfur, and no soot compared to hydrocarbon diesel.
Maybe a hybrid using a diesel to recharge the battery is a better way to go.
I believe the real costs associated with hybrid concept should be out in the
open so decisions can be made.
Posted by Bill on November 15, 2004, 9:57 pm
Ben, we in the U. S. are presently burning 336 million gallons of gasoline
per day. Replacing that with biodiesel would consume 2.3 billion pounds of
corn per day. We are currently producing 10 billion bushels of corn per
year, most of which is processed for other uses.
The long-term consequences of switching to biodiesel could be severe. Just
imagine how much acreage would be required to grow enough corn, how much
fertilizer would be needed, and how this would impact our food supply.
In my opinion, the answer is electricity generated by the sun or wind.
Posted by Ben on November 15, 2004, 11:00 pm
Wind and sun are definitely preferable. I believe that biodiesel is the
alternative to hydrocarbon fuels, and is available IMMEDIATELY. I haven't
seen any wind or solar powered tractor-trailers on the drawing boards even.
Rudolf Diesel when he designed the diesel had hopes to use Eastern Europe to
grow the fuel. And growing the fuel IS using the Sun.