Posted by Mauried on August 9, 2009, 10:49 am
Its coming down at 4% per annum, and has been doing so now for over 10
No evidence to show that any rapid drop in price will occur any time
Of course, this is what people want to beleive, so they keep
Back in the 1990s on this newsgroup, people were predicting solar
prices at 50 cents a watt by the year 2000.
If anything, solar prices will start going up as the price of
electricity goes up, as electricity is needed in large qusntities to
make the silicon wafers that go into solar panels.
Posted by Eeyore on August 13, 2009, 4:12 pm
Not to mention that increased demand for silicon wafers will increase the
price of these too ( law of supply and demand ).
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Posted by frigitar on August 15, 2009, 3:18 pm
The price of PV panels is not necessarily going to increase with
increasing costs of electricity and Si.
For one, there will be (and should be) cheaper rates of electricity
for sustainable energy production in the future, just like coal is
subsidized at present.
Secondly, the manufacturing technologies are getting way more
efficient as well. With less energy intensive methods to draw Si,
there will be lower costs.
Also, Si is already being recycled from old chips and second grade ICs
(which is good for PV but not for making transistors).
All of this of course is ignoring the huge developments in other PV
technologies. I have worked with CIGS for a while and they are pretty
much ready for deployment .. just need to tweak production processes
for large scale manufacturing ...
Thin film Si PV also cuts down on both of the above, energy usage as
well as Silicon raw material consumption.
Posted by Eeyore on August 15, 2009, 3:29 pm
Where is coal subsidised ?
And is less efficient than wafer made PV cells so needs twice the area.
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Posted by Morris Dovey on August 8, 2009, 3:49 am
I'm not a PV expert (and my primary interest is in solar thermal), but
I'll take a shot at pointing you in the right direction for this one
If you know the incident power, multiply that by the PV panel's
solar->electrical energy conversion efficiency (somewhere in the 7 - 10%
range, I think) to get an approximation of panel output.
Next subtract all the identifiable system losses (resistive losses in
wiring, charge controller, electrical->chemical energy conversion
losses, storage battery losses, chemical->electrical energy conversion
losses, inverter losses, etc).
Use the above iteratively to guesstimate the number of panels needed -
and once you have that, you should be able to approximate the power per
m^2 that you're after.
When you're all done, I predict that you'll agree with Mauried. :)
DeSoto, Iowa USA