Right time to invest in a solar photovoltaic system

 I recently installed a solar hot water system and told the contractor
I was interested in a solar photovoltaic system to provide the
remaining power to my home.  I live in Florida and the state pays 4/
watt up to $20,000.  That incentive is set to expire in 2010. I feel
that the contractor was very honest when answering my questions.  He
could have sold me a sytem but he recommended that I wait about 2
years.  He said the technology is getting more efficient and the
prices should come down and maybe the incentives will increase.  I
want to go solar but if I can get a more efficient system for a lower
price by waiting 2 years, I guess I can do that also.  The advice from
the contractor was reinforced by the representative from the power
company who came to inspect the solar hot water heater so I can
recieve my $450.00 credit.  What should I do, invest now or wait about
2 years.

Dean

  dean0 wrote:

You might see some new federal incentives, depending on who the next
president is and how Congress shakes out, but if anything I think you'll
see state incentives drop. Experience shows that when incentives don't
drop, neither do prices, and the recent trend has been subsidies that
are gradually phased out to encourage everybody in the supply chain to
make incremental progress (and to avoid the market shock that can come
with the sudden end of a large subsidy). I don't know what Florida's
plans are for its program, but I can't see them ever paying more than
$4/watt. And of course, there's always the risk that the political
climate in Florida will shift and the subsidies will abruptly end. (I
don't keep up on Florida politics, so I can't comment on the likelihood
of that....)

As for the technology, I'm not sure I'd worry too much about efficiency.
It will really only affect the size and number of PV modules you need to
buy. If you have limited space to put them then efficiency might be
important, and if the number of modules in a low-efficiency system is
going to be much greater than the number in a high-efficiency system
then the former might cost more to install.

There is a lot of speculation about where prices will go in the next
couple of years. In my opinion it hinges on two things: what happens
with silicon supply, and whether or not the amount of thin-film PV that
some people are forecasting actually hits the market. Without getting
into too many details, I expect you might see silicon module prices drop
by $1/watt or so over the next couple of years. I also expect you'll see
more thin-film modules on the market than you do now, and that those
will be somewhat cheaper than silicon modules; however, they will also
have lower efficiencies (if you're still concerned about that) and
significantly shorter warranties (10-15 years, as opposed to 20 years
for silicon).

So in sum, it's pretty likely that prices will be lower in a couple of
years, but subsidies are kind of wild card that make it hard to say what
your out-of-pocket costs would be compared to now -- could be less,
could be more, could be about the same. If Florida's plan is similar to
California's, my money is on about the same. Even so, by waiting you
stand the chance of the market shifting a little more in favor of the
buyer (right now it's very much a seller's market), and you might see
some innovative new designs that make long-term maintenance a little
cheaper and easier (though that's not to say that it's difficult or
expensive now).

 Subsidies? This is Canada. We don't need no stinking subsidies!

lol sorry - couldn't resist.

But in all seriousness, if there are better subsidies later, what will the
effect be? More demand, and a longer line-up waiting for purchase and
installations. Especially if the grid becomes more problematic. Personally,
I'd say go now.

But we don't have subsidies.

I'm also presuming that subsidies require your PV to be grid-tied?  :-(
--
Brian

(And yeah, solar thermal works wonderfully!)

 
He wants you to wait until a $4/watt incentive has expired before you buy a
system?  Is he nuts?  He only does water, right?  He doesn't do PV.


He is expecting prices to drop by $4 per watt, or he is expecting larger
incentives to come along.


It won't be $4/watt more efficient, and you are losing money while you
wait.


That is just bizarre.  The PG&E guy who authorized my grid connection has a
PV system on his house, in spite of the fact that he gets an employee
discount on grid power.

You should check out what incentives are available, and what PV installers
are in your area.  http://dsireusa.org/  to start.

--
Clarence A Dold - Hidden Valley Lake, CA, USA  GPS: 38.8,-122.5
http://cdold.home.mchsi.com/Solar-generation.htm  $1643 avoided in 2006.

 On Oct 23, 1:21 pm, d...@01.usenet.us.com wrote:

38.8,-122.5http://cdold.home.mchsi.com/Solar-generation.htm $1643 avoided in 2006.

Thanks for all the advice.  I think I am going solar sooner than
later. It doesn't make sense to wait when I can start saving
immediately.  Prices would have to drop dramically to recoup what I
could save in electricity in the 2 years.  By waiting I also run the
risk of the incentives being cancelled or reduced, so it makes a lot
of sense to go ahead and do this.  The solar company that installed my
water heater also does photovoltaic but I think they are so busy
installing water heaters that they want to concentrate on that segment
of their business. I will probably find another contractor that
specializes in photovoltaics.  Thanks again for your input.