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What are some payback times for systems currently installed? - Page 4

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Posted by argusy on November 9, 2011, 11:16 am
 
On 09/11/11 1:27 PM, Mho wrote:

Not any more. The state government dropped the FIT down from 44 to 16 cents four
weeks ago - anticipating panel prices to drop - yeah! sure! ( a little bit, but
not that much) the other six cents is gratis from the Energy supplier (making my
FIT of 50 cents, guaranteed until 2027)

der, Graham

Varies from about 2.7 to 7.1 (centred on 34 degrees south, data from NASA
Langley Research, gathered in 2002)

Er.. no.. since 2000 years ago, any investment, on average, in any country, has
doubled within any seven year period. I'll stand on that statement. You may be
right about the "good Ole USA", though, so I'll let that one dry out in the sun

making

I think we're saying the same thing in reverse (:->


though.

Yep. The Oz Federal government has decreed that any and all feed in tariffs will
cease by 2027, and subsidies have already been dropped.
These Fed controlled RECs started at $0, now they are officially at $0.
They can be traded on the "carbon" market, but it's easier to let the solar
provider "buy" them. After that, I don't know how they're traded, or how they're
used for offsetting "carbon emissions" - I got $,200, so I'm happy

I think the energy companies had a hand in the cessation of feed in tariffs,
because they'd be doing themselves out of a lot of profit if half the country
had Solar installations in fifteen years time

Everybody here in Australia woke up yesterday with the knowledge that
Australians are now the only country in the world with a carbon tax. Luverly
Lady, our Prime Minister - she made an election promise that "there will be NO
carbon tax while her party (Labor) was in government". HAH!!

A lot of us feel it's just a rort to keep more of our own money in the Fed's
coffers, rather than whatever is a "carbon tax" and "offsetting carbon
production" and all that gibberish that I can't really follow (or believe in)

After all, one volcano in South America last year, put enough carbon in the
atmosphere to offset all (man made) carbon emission savings for the next 400
years south of the equator.

<snip>

Posted by Mho on November 15, 2011, 3:53 am
 
Try this on your calculator.

Put in 1 plus 7% or 1.07.

Now compound it for 7 years or raise it to the 7th power (exponent). It
doesn't double. That old wives tale worked when rates were at the 12 and 13%
mark back 20 years ago. Either way if true it would make most PV investments
even worse to break even.


WTF is der, Graham? I assume he is a contributor here?

Your insolation factor should not vary. It will be a solid factor based on
one day,  averaged  over the period of a year.

Again, you have very good climates, excellent subsidies to make this
profitable for you. Mine will never pay off in 100 years. I use them because
I was an overzealous pioneer. Mind you I did live off them while building my
home. It would have been much cheaper to get grid power. Probably less than
10%, just in batteries alone.

------------


der, Graham

Varies from about 2.7 to 7.1 (centred on 34 degrees south, data from NASA
Langley Research, gathered in 2002)

Er.. no.. since 2000 years ago, any investment, on average, in any country,
has
doubled within any seven year period. I'll stand on that statement. You may
be
right about the "good Ole USA", though, so I'll let that one dry out in the
sun


Posted by argusy on November 15, 2011, 10:39 am
 On 15/11/11 2:23 PM, Mho wrote:

Now you're trying to treat me like an eight year old, just learning about
compound interest

Hey, I'm 64

I grew up WITHOUT a calculator, and I can still do compound interest in my head.
I know 1.07  ^ 7 is about 1.6 not 2.

I DIDN'T MENTION COMPOUND INTEREST.

(I could say "you moron" here, but I won't)

The AVERAGE investment, (note - nothing about compound interest), will double in
value every seven years (so where did this 7% compounded come from?), given the
data that's been garnered from records dating back to the first banks in the
Grecian Empire (so that's about 2500 years)

Oh, come on - I wrote AVERAGE!! That means there's an awful lot of investments
that MORE than double in seven years.

I'll let you in on a secret - Weapons investments well and truly are higher than
the AVERAGE investment, and which Empires grew phenomenally with wars
(err... Greek, Roman, Egyptian, Spanish, Dutch, English, American, plus a lot of
others)

Whoops, American!!. Oh, of course, USA weapon makers have been selling weapons
to protagonists for two hundred years.  The USA NEEDS warring countries so the
average American can live in a style that most countries only dream about.

Go check on your American weapon makers' profits since the 1700's.




no. That's me.

IN the USA you'd probably understand it more if you watch the Simpsons, with
Bart's dad going "Doh, stupid" (referring to himself, of course)




What is your insolation factor there?

Varies from about 2.7 to 7.1 (centred on 34 degrees south, data from NASA
Langley Research, gathered in 2002)


Your insolation factor should not vary. It will be a solid factor based on one
day, averaged over the period of a year.


It had better vary, as our planet has an axial tilt, and I get hot in summer and
cold in winter.

If I pick the summer solstice, that's 7.1
If I pick the Winter solstice, it's 2.7

Either of the equinoxes will give you the following (read: five-year-old maths
lesson)

Add 2.7 to 7.1
divide the answer by 2.

Is that your "solid factor"?


I'm not even going to bother any further - just look up "insolation factor" on
the internet.

<snip>

Posted by Mho on November 16, 2011, 4:01 am
 OK with that math and bad memory, we won't go any further.

----------

On 15/11/11 2:23 PM, Mho wrote:

Now you're trying to treat me like an eight year old, just learning about
compound interest

Hey, I'm 64

I grew up WITHOUT a calculator, and I can still do compound interest in my
head.
I know 1.07  ^ 7 is about 1.6 not 2.

I DIDN'T MENTION COMPOUND INTEREST.

(I could say "you moron" here, but I won't)

The AVERAGE investment, (note - nothing about compound interest), will
double in
value every seven years (so where did this 7% compounded come from?), given
the
data that's been garnered from records dating back to the first banks in the
Grecian Empire (so that's about 2500 years)

Oh, come on - I wrote AVERAGE!! That means there's an awful lot of
investments
that MORE than double in seven years.

I'll let you in on a secret - Weapons investments well and truly are higher
than
the AVERAGE investment, and which Empires grew phenomenally with wars
(err... Greek, Roman, Egyptian, Spanish, Dutch, English, American, plus a
lot of
others)

Whoops, American!!. Oh, of course, USA weapon makers have been selling
weapons
to protagonists for two hundred years.  The USA NEEDS warring countries so
the
average American can live in a style that most countries only dream about.

Go check on your American weapon makers' profits since the 1700's.




no. That's me.

IN the USA you'd probably understand it more if you watch the Simpsons, with
Bart's dad going "Doh, stupid" (referring to himself, of course)




What is your insolation factor there?

Varies from about 2.7 to 7.1 (centred on 34 degrees south, data from NASA
Langley Research, gathered in 2002)


Your insolation factor should not vary. It will be a solid factor based on
one
day, averaged over the period of a year.


It had better vary, as our planet has an axial tilt, and I get hot in summer
and
cold in winter.

If I pick the summer solstice, that's 7.1
If I pick the Winter solstice, it's 2.7

Either of the equinoxes will give you the following (read: five-year-old
maths
lesson)

Add 2.7 to 7.1
divide the answer by 2.

Is that your "solid factor"?


I'm not even going to bother any further - just look up "insolation factor"
on
the internet.

<snip>


Posted by Swims with Dolphins on November 23, 2011, 11:29 pm
 Actually, for some strange reason its called the "rule of 72", although
I think its actually 69.something.

In any case, 7.2% for 10 years, or 10% for 7.2 years, or 1% for 72
years, or 5% for 14.4 years will in fact double your money.  Clearly its
a function of both time and interest.

Suspect the 7.2 number came about due to quarterly compounding instead
of instant, which the log functions assume.

On 11/14/2011 9:53 PM, Mho wrote:


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